When Tariffs Fade and Fed Policy Takes Center Stage
The July numbers are in, and they show a market moving at different speeds depending on the city. In some areas, sales have dropped significantly compared to last year, while in others, activity has held steady or even grown. We are also seeing a mix of price movement, with some cities posting solid median price gains and others showing double-digit declines. Even with fewer sales in certain markets, many homes are still selling quickly, and buyers in most cities continue to compete on price.
Tariff announcements have faded into the background. The bigger focus now is on July’s weaker job numbers, with only 73,000 new jobs nationwide, unemployment at 4.2 percent, and the strong likelihood, over 94 percent, that the Fed will cut rates in September.
A Mixed Market
Of the ten cities I track, six had fewer sales than last July, while four posted gains. In most cases, buyers are still competing on price, and multiple-offer situations remain common.
Ultra-High-End Homes
Atherton is always unique, with just a handful of sales each month. In July, there were three sales compared to seven last year. Days on market nearly doubled from 15 to 33, yet homes are still commanding top dollar, with the median price soaring 90 percent to $11.6 million. This tells us that at this level, buyers may take more time, but they are still willing to pay for the right property.
Los Altos and Los Altos Hills both saw fewer sales, down 38 percent and 30 percent respectively. Prices dipped in both: Los Altos Hills dropped 23 percent to $4.8 million, and Los Altos slipped 12 percent. Interestingly, homes in both areas are selling faster than last year, with Los Altos now averaging just 12 days on the market.
The Mid-Range
Cupertino saw the biggest sales drop, down 32 percent, but homes are selling in just 9 days compared to 24 last year. Prices are nearly flat, showing that when a home is priced right, it attracts quick offers. Palo Alto was strong, with sales up 4 percent, prices up 23 percent to $4.35 million, and market time cut from 31 days to 14.
Standout Performers
Redwood City posted a 50 percent jump in sales, from 30 to 45 homes sold, and an 11 percent price increase to $2.25 million. Homes are taking slightly longer to sell, averaging 19 days compared to 10, but the surge in activity suggests buyers see strong value here.
Mountain View saw sales climb 11 percent and prices rise 9 percent to $2.54 million, selling in just 8 days on average. Menlo Park also did well, with 19 percent more sales and prices up 14 percent to $3.32 million, although homes there took slightly longer to sell than in Mountain View.
Steady Markets
Santa Clara matched last year’s sales count, though prices dipped 8 percent to $1.75 million. Sunnyvale’s sales were down just 5 percent, while prices inched up 1 percent. The bigger story here is that 66 percent of homes sold between $200,000 and $800,000 over asking, a clear sign of continued fierce bidding.
How the Fed’s Next Move Fits In
With a September rate cut widely expected, buyers are split. Some are waiting in anticipation of lower borrowing costs, while others want to secure a home before competition intensifies. For now, the data shows we are still in a competitive environment.
Bottom Line
This is a market of contrasts, with fewer sales in some cities and strong price growth in others, but quick sales and buyer competition in most. If we start to see both lower sale-to-list price ratios and longer days on market across the board, that could point to a slower fall. Right now, we are not there yet, and for sellers who price strategically, conditions remain favorable.
Connect with Wendy at [email protected] for personalized insights and strategies to make the most of our current market conditions.
(This report covers from Redwood City to Cupertino. Redwood City and Menlo Park fall under San Mateo County. Palo Alto, Mountain View, Los Altos, Cupertino, Sunnyvale, and Santa Clara fall under Santa Clara County. Data include single-family home sales only. Data is from CA MLS and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Private sales are not included.)
Posted on August 14, 2025
